000			01727 a2200145 4500
008			250519b |||||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a9780241658628
082			_a501 SPI
100			_aSpiegelhalter, David
245			_aArt of uncertainty: how to navigate chance, ignorance, risk and luck
260			_aGreat Britain: _bPelican, _c2024.
300			_axiv, 487 p.: _bill.; hbk.: _c23 cm.
520			_aWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order. Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know. https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/458199/the-art-of-uncertainty-by-spiegelhalter-david/9780241658628
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